98th Grey Cup

Nearly one year ago I predicted that the 2010 Grey Cup would feature the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Montreal Alouettes. On Sunday that prediction came to fruition.

Let’s see how the teams match up statistically. Riders QB, Darian Durant finished the regular season with a 61% completion rate, 25 touchdowns and 22 interceptions; virtually the same as last season. Anthony Calvillo had a 68% completion rate, threw thirty-two touchdowns and a league low seven interceptions. Montreal is first in the league with 315.3 average yards passing a game with Saskatchewan right behind them at 313.6. Montreal was sixth in average rush yards a game - 103.6 and Saskatchewan fifth in rush yards per game at 106.8.

On defense, Saskatchewan let up an average of 261.8 yards passing a game (3^rd best) and a horrific rush defense average of 137.4 yards a game – worst in the league. Montreal was seventh and first respectively in those categories - 291.4 passing and 96.6 rushing. In the turnover battle Montreal was +18 in giveaway/takeaways (best in the league) while the Riders were fifth with -6.

Montreal is not as dominating a team as they were last year. Nevertheless the Riders still need to strategize against a determined Montreal team:

First, Saskatchewan should implement a double running back threat the way Calgary has established this season with Reynolds and Cornish. As Hugh Charles is still on the injured list; Stu Foord or Neal Hughes should be brought in every third running play (or so) to add a different running style, mess with Montreal’s defense, and to rest Cates.

Secondly, the Riders must continue to improve on their run defense. They held Burris to just one yard rushing and the rest of the team to 85. Against the Alouettes, Saskatchewan will have to keep Avon Cobourne similarly contained.

Mentality. One of the reasons I love this team is because of the way they work as a team. They are no hot shots just individuals focusing on a win for their team. Like last Grey Cup, Durant’s attitude and leadership will help settle himself and his team; allowing them to complete plays with confidence (see History in the Making – November 2009). Regarding the upset last year, Coach Miller shared some wise words “Revenge…[is] a very poor motivator…We would much rather think about what lies ahead of us and what we need to do as opposed to what happened to us.”

Sharp play calling. Coaching staff must take advantage of Durant’s mobility. He finished the season first in pass (5,542) and rush yards (618) amongst all quarterbacks. Initially, plays should be short ten, fifteen yard passes mixed with rushing plays (by RBs and QB) to allow Durant to warm up and get into rhythm. Afterwards the playbook should be open. Quarterback draw plays, screen plays, long bombs, double reverses will exploit Durant’s ability and keep Montreal anxious.

Go Riders!! Bring home the Cup!!

Game prediction: Saskatchewan 31 Montreal 27