98th Grey Cup

Nearly one year ago I predicted that the 2010 Grey Cup would feature the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Montreal Alouettes. On Sunday that prediction came to fruition.

Let’s see how the teams match up statistically. Riders QB, Darian Durant finished the regular season with a 61% completion rate, 25 touchdowns and 22 interceptions; virtually the same as last season. Anthony Calvillo had a 68% completion rate, threw thirty-two touchdowns and a league low seven interceptions. Montreal is first in the league with 315.3 average yards passing a game with Saskatchewan right behind them at 313.6. Montreal was sixth in average rush yards a game - 103.6 and Saskatchewan fifth in rush yards per game at 106.8.

On defense, Saskatchewan let up an average of 261.8 yards passing a game (3^rd best) and a horrific rush defense average of 137.4 yards a game – worst in the league. Montreal was seventh and first respectively in those categories - 291.4 passing and 96.6 rushing. In the turnover battle Montreal was +18 in giveaway/takeaways (best in the league) while the Riders were fifth with -6.

Montreal is not as dominating a team as they were last year. Nevertheless the Riders still need to strategize against a determined Montreal team:

First, Saskatchewan should implement a double running back threat the way Calgary has established this season with Reynolds and Cornish. As Hugh Charles is still on the injured list; Stu Foord or Neal Hughes should be brought in every third running play (or so) to add a different running style, mess with Montreal’s defense, and to rest Cates.

Secondly, the Riders must continue to improve on their run defense. They held Burris to just one yard rushing and the rest of the team to 85. Against the Alouettes, Saskatchewan will have to keep Avon Cobourne similarly contained.

Mentality. One of the reasons I love this team is because of the way they work as a team. They are no hot shots just individuals focusing on a win for their team. Like last Grey Cup, Durant’s attitude and leadership will help settle himself and his team; allowing them to complete plays with confidence (see History in the Making – November 2009). Regarding the upset last year, Coach Miller shared some wise words “Revenge…[is] a very poor motivator…We would much rather think about what lies ahead of us and what we need to do as opposed to what happened to us.”

Sharp play calling. Coaching staff must take advantage of Durant’s mobility. He finished the season first in pass (5,542) and rush yards (618) amongst all quarterbacks. Initially, plays should be short ten, fifteen yard passes mixed with rushing plays (by RBs and QB) to allow Durant to warm up and get into rhythm. Afterwards the playbook should be open. Quarterback draw plays, screen plays, long bombs, double reverses will exploit Durant’s ability and keep Montreal anxious.

Go Riders!! Bring home the Cup!!

Game prediction: Saskatchewan 31 Montreal 27

2010 CFL Season

Finally the CFL is back for another mind blowing season! It has been a long off-season for the Riders and their fans after the debacle of the 97th Grey Cup. Well it is now time to evaluate the teams' rosters, performance, and predict who will be the contenders in the Grey Cup. The numbers in parenthesis are standings from 2009 season.

The BC Lions (8-10) have finally released QB Buck "Concussion"Pierce now that they have Casey Printers back. They have added to their defense with Dave Sanchez and Keron Williams. Martell Mallett was replaced by Jamal Robertson at running back. The Lions have, however, lost a number of strong players in the off season: LB Lavy Glatt, WR Ryan Grice-Mullen, OL Jason Jimenez, RB Ian Smart, and LB JoJuan Armour.

I believe BC will have another mediocre year. Printers is a decent QB, but I'm not sure he is in the same form he was back in 2004. BC had rough time last year protecting against the run and had a league leading 59 turnovers. In a tough western division look for the Lions to be at the bottom.

Calgary Stampeders (10-7-1) will once again be a formidable team. They had the number one running back in the league with Joffery Reynolds racking up 1504 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. The Stampeders also have a solid receiving core and defensive line. As a result, they have made relatively few change during the off-season. Perhaps the most questionable was not re-signing kicker Sandro DeAngelis who made 85.7% of his field goals and accumulated 176 points for his team (second in the league). Calgary will finish first in the west.

The Edmonton Eskimos (9-9) fell short of my expectations last year. Although QB Ricky Ray finished the season first in yards passing he did not perform overly well. Despite averaging 286 pass yards/game the Eskimos often struggled to win games. Virtually every aspect of their team was inconsistent. Four of their nine wins were by three or less points. Most of their changes came at defense where DB Chris Thompson, LB Javier Glatt, and DB Lenny Walls will fill the places of Kelly Malveaux, Lenny Williams, and Reggie Hunt. Edmonton will finish third in the west.

The Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-7-1) have made several changes over the past six months. On defense John Chick, Stevie Baggs, and Renauld Williams have departed for the NFL. Kicker Jamie Boreham was traded to Toronto for first overall draft pick, where we acquired DE Shomari Williams. Saskatchewan also signed QB Ryan Dinwiddie and Cole Bergquist. Originally I was somewhat skeptical of Dinwiddie; however he performed well against the Lions in pre-season action.

I believe Durant sums up the team's attitude best; "If you dwell on what happened in November, you won't be able to move forward." Centre Jeremy O'Day adds that "if anything is going to fuel this team...it's a game like that." The Riders have signed a few key players who will help. RB Dominique Dorsey will certainly improve the Riders special teams' worst kickoff return average in the league (18.6 yards). The green and white are also glad to have veteran receiver Prechae Rodriguez from Hamilton. Barrin Simpson also joins the team as a proven linebacker. The Riders will battle their way to second in the west.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-11) smartly fired coach Mike Kelly back in December. Kelly's attitude and demeanour let to the release of important players; QB Kevin Glenn, DE Barrin Simpson, and receivers Arjei Franklin and Romby Bryant; and a disgruntled fan base. New head coach Paul LaPolice was hired in February. QBs Steven Jyles and Buck Pierce should add some stability and amelioration to the team. However, the Bombers have also lost a number of key defensive players. Winnipeg will finish third in the east.

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-9) continue to strengthen their team in all facets. They will improve defensively with the addition of talented defensive backs. The precision of kicker Sandro DeAngelis on special teams will be of great significance. Wide receivers Maurice Mann from Edmonton and Adam Nicholson from Saskatchewan will augment Hamilton's receiving core. Despite this progress the Tiger-Cats still won't be able to overtake Montreal in the east. Hamilton will settle for second in the east.

The Toronto Argonauts (3-15) have hired a new head coach, Jim Barker. In addition, they have four new QBs. Dalton Bell, the only one with any CFL experience, looked the best in their first pre-season game. Receiver Jermaine Copeland was also acquired. However Toronto did lose valuable players in the off-season. SB Andre Talbot, WR P.K. Sam, kicker Justin Medlock (who connected on 87% of his field goals), and RB Jamal Robertson. Many changes were also made on defense. Toronto lacks a seasoned CFL QB and their new players will need time to gel together. Toronto will once again be in the basement of the east.

The Montreal Alouettes (15-3) had another banner year in 2009, boasting first in numerous CFL categories. On defense DL Keron Williams and DB Davis Sanchez left the Alouettes. More pressing was the retirement of OL Brian Chiu just before training camp. Regardless, Montreal will have one more dominating season before a few key players retire. Montreal will place first in the east.

Predictions:

West

Calgary 12 - 6 Saskatchewan 10 - 8 Edmonton 9 - 9 BC 8 - 10

East

Montreal 14 - 4 Hamilton 10 - 8 Winnipeg 7 - 11 Toronto 4 - 14

West Semi/Final

Saskatchewan/Edmonton = Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan/Calgary = Saskatchewan

East Semi/Final

Hamilton/BC = Hamilton
Montreal/Hamilton = Montreal

98th Grey Cup

Saskatchewan/Montreal = Saskatchewan

Nathan's 2009 season predictions: 44-27 (NateB3)

History in the Making

For the first time in CFL history the Saskatchewan Roughriders will be playing the Montreal Alouettes in the Grey Cup. I have a great deal of respect for these two talented and disciplined teams.

Let's consider the stats. On offense, Als QB, Anthony Calvillo, has completed 72% of his passes, threw twenty-six touchdowns and only six picks. Darian Durant executed 60% of his throws accurately, passed for twenty-four touchdowns and a league-high twenty-one interceptions. Montreal is first in the league for average yards passing a game (294) and second in average yards rushing a game with 120. Saskatchewan is fifth and sixth respectively in those categories - 259.6 passing and 109.6 rushing yards a game.

Defensively, Montreal gave up an average of 245.2 passing yards/game (first in league) while the Riders relinquished an average of 249.5 yards for fourth in the league. Rush defense is a different story. The Riders allowed 123.4 yards (avg/game) making them second last in the league against the run. Meanwhile the Als limited their opponents to only 75.1 yards (avg/game) which is the best run defense in the CFL.

On paper these numbers look daunting to Roughrider fans. However I feel Saskatchewan has four key weapons in which they can pull out a win against Montreal:

First, we must exploit our run game. Wes Cates was the only running back not to rush for 1,000 yards this season. Cates has 400 less all purpose yards and half as many touchdowns than he did last year. Paul LaPolice must incorporate more running plays into the offense on Sunday.

Next, our solid defense must influence the game. By pressuring Calvillo, hindering Montreal's run game, and shutting down Watkins and Richardson (who account for half of Montreal's receiving touchdowns), the Riders will keep this game in reach.

Saskatchewan will need to pull out some tricks from the playbook. Dressler had been involved in several sneak plays. In the West Final Armstead received a hand-off from Durant and threw a 42 yard pass to Bagg in the third. Such plays will keep Montreal's defense on edge.

"The thing you need to do is get your mind right and get ready to come out here and play football." This was Durant's mentality heading into the West Final. After the game he added, "I’ve been telling [the media] all week that’s it’s another game — seriously. I wasn’t nervous. I just went out there and played football, because when it all dies down, you have to play football for three hours." The Riders have been calm and focused in the last few games. They must play with the same mind-set in Calgary.

I'm looking forward to an exciting game of Canadian football! My prediction: Saskatchewan Roughriders 32 Montreal Alouettes 30

Canadian Gridiron

I have been an enthusiastic Riders and CFL fan for the better part of seven years now. No other sport can capture my attention like Canadian football. This week marks the mid-point of the season, the time when I feel inclined to reflect on where the teams stand so far. Numbers in parentheses are my predictions, from June, for the season standings. The players listed below each team are, in my opinion, up and coming playmakers.

In the west division, the 5-3 Eskimos were noticeably sluggish at the beginning of the season. Notwithstanding, Edmonton has since jelled and are playing like they should be. In addition to averaging 322 passing yards a game, they are the league's least penalized team. With their offense, defense, and special teams firing be sure to watch the Esks climb to the top of the division. (13-5)

Arkee Whitlock - 5 TDs, 800+ combined yards
Tristan Jackson - 1 TD punt return, averages 15 yards per return

In the first eight games, Calgary has been inconsistent. After routing Toronto and BC earlier in the season, the Stamps have lost two very close games against Saskatchewan and Edmonton. Not that they have played poorly during those games, but in the end you must have the win. This past weekend they barely managed a win against the Argonauts. At a mediocre 4-4, Calgary must improve on its run defense (averaging 128.5 yards/game against them) if they want be in the Grey Cup on home turf. Look for Calgary to battle Saskatchewan for second place in the west. (12-6)

Odell Willis - 11 tackles, 6 sacks

In June I had been rather worried about the Roughriders' defense with the departure of Richie Hall, Maurice Lloyd, Kitwana Jones, and Scott Gordon. However with Stevie Baggs and John Chick in our lineup my apprehension was soon put to rest. Together these boys boast 34 tackles, 13 sacks, and 6 forced fumbles. Baggs is currently tied for first in the league with 7 sacks. Even our quarterbacks are playing better than I anticipated. Nonetheless, the Riders still have their work cut out for them. Saskatchewan needs to work on its run defense, stay focused for an entire sixty minutes, and create opportunities to score points in the third quarter. In eight games, opponents have outscored the Riders 78-7 in the third quarter. I remain optimistic that the Riders will finish better than I predicted a few months ago. (8-10)

Stevie Baggs - 28 tackles, 7 sacks, 3 force fumbles
Weston Dressler- 2 TDs, 750+ combined yards

BC will remain at the bottom of the west. With no pivotal quarterback and key defensive players traded, they are no longer the dominating team from a couple years ago. The Lions are last in the league in rush defense giving up an average of 156 yards a game on the ground. They also have a league-high 33 turnovers. Wally Buono needs to make some major adjustments in the second half of the season. BC faces back to back games against a powerful Montreal team after the bye week. (9-9)

Emmanuel Arcenaux - 7 TDs, 500 yards receiving
Martell Mallett - 3 TDs, 1100+ combined yards

On to the east division. For awhile it was believed that Montreal would go undefeated this season. I think this sentiment appears in any league with any team that starts 4-0. In week 5 the Alouettes were beaten 33-19 by the Eskimos, but it remains their only defeat thus far. The Als deserve the 7-1 record they have, holding first spot in a number of categories: fewest sacks allowed (10), fewest turnovers (15), 23 sacks against opponents, limiting other teams to an average of 67 rushing yards a game. Anthony Calvillo is blessed with a 74% pass completion rate and averages 11.3 yards a pass. I don't mean to make it sound that statistics tell the whole story, but Montreal will more than likely finish better than the 12-6 record I predicted back in June. (12-6)

S.J. Green - 2 TDs, 200+ receiving yards
Larry Taylor - 2 punt return TDs, 15 yard average on returns

After several dismal years, Hamilton is a much improved team. They have quickly become my second favourite team to cheer for. With a promising and athletic quarterback, Quinton Porter and back-up veteran qb Kevin Glenn, a robust receiving core, and an unyielding defense the Ti-Cats have become a force to be reckoned with. Take in one of their games and see the intensity they play with. Hamilton will duel the Bombers for second in the east. (7-12)

DeAndra Cobb - 5 TDs, 700+ combined yards
Geoff Tisdale - 17 tackles, 1 INT for TD

Winnipeg's performance through the first half of the season has been erratic. With the retirement of veteran receiver Milt Stegall and the release of qb Kevin Glenn, the biggest struggle for the Bombers is their passing game. Presently, the Bombers average only a league-low 153.5 passing yards a game. The acquirement of qb Michael Bishop has not solved their offensive woes. Completing only 49% of his passes, Bishop is only slightly more effective than the man he replaced, Stefan Lefors. On the other hand, the Bombers enjoy positive points too. They rush an average of 161 yards per game, the highest in the league. Additionally, Winnipeg players snagged 19 interceptions in eight games, more than any other team. The Bombers need to focus on offense in order to contend with Hamilton for second place. (8-10)

Dorian Smith - 22 tackles, 5 sacks

The Argonauts have numerous problems to say the least. Cody Pickett has outperformed Joesph; has yet to win a game though. Toronto is atop the league in most sacks allowed (30), most penalty yards (850), and only 154 scoring points. Rookie Bart Andrus has made some questionable calls as coach - his decision to trade Bruce (their #1 receiver) to Hamilton. More recently the potential game-tying field goal attempt against Calgary last Friday. (6-12)

Justin Medlock 20/21 field goals made (95%), longest 52 yards

Join me in watching some electrifying CFL action this weekend! (20-12 on season predictions)